Australia and Japan, hard power concerns
Craig Turner, 20240809
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On 9 August 2024, The Australian published an article, /Australia to become
'US protectorate' in Asia, Keating warns/. [1]

The article quotes Paul Keating's view that Australian Prime Minister Anthony
Albanese is "finding our security from Asia rather than our security in Asia".

Keating's claim is flawed, because the aggressive actor that Australia needs
to be careful about is China, and China is not Asia. Nevertheless, the concept
of "security in Asia" is worthwhile, and there is a lesson in it.

The lesson is this: at every opportunity, Australia should cultivate stronger
relations with Japan.

While Australia's defence is guaranteed by the US, isolationist attitudes in
the US are dangerous to the Australian interest.

Japan is also vulnerable to this.

In the situation where the US became isolationist, nations who rely on the US
nuclear umbrella for coverage would be desperate to get under a new umbrella.

The plausible sources of advanced nuclear technology or coverage to Australia
are US, UK, France, Japan, India. Of those options, Japan is the natural ally.
It is in the same region, it faces the same threats and it has western
institutions. It does not have a weapons program, but could reach the
capability quickly.

Isolationist positions have been strengthening in the US for the last decade.
It is wonderful that the friendship between countries is such that the US
wishes to increase its presence in Australia despite this, and despite
Australia being in a neighbouring region.

Nevertheless, Australia needs to get AUKUS online as quickly as possible.
AUKUS gives missile and submarine delivery options, and would be a valuable
capability to bring to a future collaboration with its natural ally, Japan.


[1] https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/australia-to-become-us-protectorate-in-asia-keating-warns/news-story/6c5b87195a988e38c8f30668bacff09a